News
IMG Staff Attends Chapman University’s 2025 Economic Forecast Conference
Woodland Hills, CA— December 15, 2025 — IMG staff participated in Chapman University’s highly regarded 2025 Economic Forecast Conference held on Thursday, December 11th, held in a virtual and in-person format. The conference, renowned for its accurate predictions compared to industry benchmarks like the Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey, included live Q&A sessions with experts.
Chapman University’s bi-annual economic event outlined expectations for the 2026 U.S. economy, projecting real GDP growth of approximately 2%. Speakers described a cautiously optimistic outlook shaped by shifting monetary policy, elevated government spending, global trade uncertainty, and unprecedented levels of capital investment in artificial intelligence.
Economic Outlook for 2026
Presenters noted that monetary conditions are turning mildly expansionary. After contracting through much of 2023, real M2 money supply has moved back into positive territory, with expectations that the Federal Reserve will resume bond purchases heading into 2026. Interest rates are projected to normalize, with the federal funds rate averaging approximately 3.4% and longer-term rates near 3.6%.
While the yield curve inversion from late 2022 through mid-2025 historically signaled recession risk, economists emphasized that elevated federal deficits helped offset contractionary pressures. Tariff policy was discussed as fiscally neutral from a budget standpoint, though economically restrictive, with estimates suggesting tariffs could reduce real GDP growth by roughly 0.4% in 2026.
Job growth is expected to slow, although speakers cautioned that current reporting may understate actual labor conditions. Regionally, South Carolina and Texas ranked among the top states for job growth from mid-2022 through mid-2025 (see IMG footprint in these regions).
Investment, Wealth, and Market Dynamics
One of the strongest tailwinds highlighted was capital investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure. Major technology firms are projected to spend approximately $400 billion on AI and data centers in 2026, with further increases expected the following year. Economists compared the scale of this investment cycle to prior transformative periods, noting that innovation-driven booms often include periods of overinvestment followed by market corrections.
Household wealth continues to support consumer spending, having increased roughly 50% from 2020 through 2025. The top 10% of earners now account for approximately half of all U.S. consumer spending, reinforcing the link between asset values and economic activity.
Volatility, AI Valuations, and Crypto Markets
Speakers addressed elevated asset valuations and heightened market volatility, particularly within AI-driven sectors. While parallels were drawn to the dot-com era, presenters emphasized key differences, including real revenue generation, widespread adoption, stronger balance sheets, and more robust regulatory oversight.
The surge in debt issuance by large technology firms has placed upward pressure on bond yields, increasing capital costs and forcing greater discipline across markets. This dynamic has contributed to recent equity and crypto volatility. Bitcoin, in particular, experienced sharp declines driven by rising global yields, leverage unwinds, and liquidity contraction. Economists characterized the current environment as highly volatile and advised continued caution.
A full recording of the conference is available online courtesy of Chapman University.
About Chapman University
Founded in 1861, Chapman University is a nationally ranked private university located in Orange, California. The university serves nearly 9,000 undergraduate and graduate students across 11 colleges, offering more than 110 areas of study with a 12:1 student-to-faculty ratio. Chapman University’s A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research has provided economic forecasting and analysis for over 45 years and is consistently recognized for its forecasting accuracy.
About Investors Management Group
Founded by Neil Schimmel, Investors Management Group, Inc. (“IMG”) is an award-winning real estate sponsor and asset manager. IMG specializes in improving and managing apartment communities to enhance the resident living experience and maximize value for investors. IMG currently owns and operates a $1 billion national apartment portfolio. Learn more